--- title: Insights from Greenwich Ivy Capital description: Investment insights from Greenwich Ivy Capital LLC --- [![Greenwich Ivy Capital LLC](https://greenwichivy.com/hubfs/Logos/Greenwich%20Ivy%20Capital%20LLC%202022.png "Greenwich Ivy Capital LLC")](https://GreenwichIvy.com) ## **Investment Insights from Greenwich Ivy Capital** ### **Greenwich Ivy Capital** **Market Notes** #### 13 Jul 2023 #### **The Anatomy of a Manic-Depressive Market** [The equity market is not always reflective of underlying company and economic fundamentals; in fact one might argue that the market is often detached from the fundamentals. We find that the market is currently at such a juncture, where economic reality is not accurately reflected in equity prices.](https://docsend.com/view/wgpq2yuvpz9eue69) [Furthermore, the market is currently both euphoric and despondent, all at the same time. In other words, sections of the market are pricing in a utopian scenario of blue-sky growth, whereas other parts of the market are pricing in a contractionary economic scenario.](https://docsend.com/view/wgpq2yuvpz9eue69) [Markets go from one extreme in sentiment to the other all the time; euphoria is followed by despondency which is followed by euphoria. But seldom does it occur that the market is so internally bifurcated at any given time. This is the situation with the equity market today.](https://docsend.com/view/wgpq2yuvpz9eue69) [In the note below, we delve into which parts of the market are euphoric (or at least quasi-euphoric) and which are despondent (or at least quasi-despondent). We then ask whether this bifurcation is an anomaly, which could potentially lead to opportunities for harvesting alpha.](https://docsend.com/view/wgpq2yuvpz9eue69) ### **Greenwich Ivy Capital** **Market Notes** #### 12 Mar 2023 #### **Developments at Silicon Valley Bank** [We wanted to spend a few minutes writing about what is going on at Silicon Valley Bank. We then extrapolate the implications of this for the US banking sector and the equity markets overall. ](https://docsend.com/view/uqsqwgktnnjznuvs) [Finally, we examine how to invest in an environment of elevated risk, while attempting to reduce volatility and capture upside returns.](https://docsend.com/view/uqsqwgktnnjznuvs) ### **Greenwich Ivy Capital** **Market Notes** #### 27 Sep 2022 #### **The Perfect Time for Long-Short Equity: Threading the Equity Market Needle** [In this note, we examine the recent trends in equity and bond prices. We observe that for the first time essentially since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09, U.S. Treasury paper across the entire duration spectrum has *real yields* that are substantially positive.](https://docsend.com/view/bmhntijes2vs478t) [This means that now fixed income is potentially a viable asset class with meaningful yields – whereas for all of the previous decade, equities were the only game in town for investors seeking high real returns.](https://docsend.com/view/bmhntijes2vs478t) [In addition, equities face a plethora of risks, including a potential imminent recession, geopolitical uncertainty, and valuation levels that are still elevated.](https://docsend.com/view/bmhntijes2vs478t) [However, even in an environment of *heightened equity risks*, and despite a *viable competing asset class* in fixed income, we argue that equities remain the most reliable vehicle for long-term capital appreciation.](https://docsend.com/view/bmhntijes2vs478t) [In particular, we believe that *long-short equity* investing potentially offers the best of both worlds:](https://docsend.com/view/bmhntijes2vs478t) [(A) equity-like returns that are even now superior to the returns that can be expected from fixed income instruments, and](https://docsend.com/view/bmhntijes2vs478t) [(B) downside mitigation in a world where bonds have not been defensive, and where both equity and bond prices could experience further significant declines.](https://docsend.com/view/bmhntijes2vs478t) [Finally, we note that not all long-short equity funds are created equal. We believe that investors should seek funds that are *fundamental*, in that they examine the fundamentals of individual companies and sectors, and *opportunistic*, in that they can rapidly respond to changing market conditions...](https://docsend.com/view/bmhntijes2vs478t) ### **Greenwich Ivy Capital** **Market Notes** #### 28 Aug 2022 #### **Powell and Putin** [Post Jay Powell's statement at Jackson Hole on Friday (08.26.2022), we wanted to share our thoughts on what we see in the investment landscape today.](https://docsend.com/view/mbniaqw3tt2xvifs) [After the market's blood-red reaction to Powell's speech on Friday, the bulls are visibly rattled. At Greenwich Ivy Capital ("Greenwich Ivy"), we believe that the market's reaction was very much appropriate, that Powell's words were deliberately chosen to achieve the effect that they did, and that the downward move in equity prices was in fact overdue.](https://docsend.com/view/mbniaqw3tt2xvifs) [We believe that the S&P 500, and the global equity markets more broadly, have to get past the twin specters of Powell and Putin, before equity prices can see a sustainable rally...](https://docsend.com/view/mbniaqw3tt2xvifs) ### **Greenwich Ivy Capital** **Market Notes** #### 24 May 2022 #### **Where does the Equity Market Go from Here?** [We wanted to give a brief update on where the equity market stands today. What is happening now is similar to what happened in Q4 2018 when the Federal Reserve was in a tightening cycle. We touched upon this in our last Market Note. During that period, the 10-Year Treasury yield rose and the S&P 500 fell into a bear market. Equity EPS estimates initially held up when the market started to fall, so that the P/E multiple of the S&P 500 effectively compressed – but ultimately the EPS estimates started to come down as well…](https://docsend.com/view/ubs2j3zm7byq35mr) ### **Greenwich Ivy Capital** **Market Notes** #### 06 Apr 2022 #### **What Happens When the Fed  Starts to Tighten?** [We wanted to share our thoughts on recent developments regarding Fed tightening. What does it mean when the U.S. Federal Reserve System (the “Fed”) begins to tighten? And what implications does this have for the economy and for the equity markets?](https://docsend.com/view/4zb4eqexvhhvkmcx) [It is strange to think that a certain quasi-governmental organization comprised of bureaucrats and economists, sitting in their ivory tower, can so firmly control the trajectory of the U.S. economy and securities markets. As Americans, we are taught to think that we live in a capitalist utopia of free markets, where the unfettered exchange of goods and services occurs based on market-clearing prices determined by the fundamental intersection of supply and demand. Alas, that is not the case…](https://docsend.com/view/4zb4eqexvhhvkmcx) ### **Greenwich Ivy Capital** **Market Notes** #### 06 Mar 2022 #### **Thoughts on Ukraine** [We wanted to share our thoughts on recent equity market developments, specifically pertaining to events in Ukraine and the market’s reaction to them.](https://docsend.com/view/wmy58iggas3sq9n9) [The above is an image of the Berlin Wall right before its fall, circa 1989. Standing atop the wall with open arms, jubilant, victorious, are residents of West Germany. Standing on the ground are soldiers of East Germany, with arms crossed in trepidation about what is to occur next. We must remember that the Berlin Wall was built by East Germany, to keep the East Germans in. It was not built by West Germany, to keep the East Germans out. We will come back to this point in a moment.](https://docsend.com/view/wmy58iggas3sq9n9) [Europe finds itself at a similar juncture today. Russia is invading Ukraine, with the goal of setting up a puppet Ukrainian government beholden to the Kremlin and operating under a Communist regime…](https://docsend.com/view/wmy58iggas3sq9n9) ### **Greenwich Ivy Capital** **Greenwich Ivy Long-Short Fund** #### 2022 Q1 Jan-Mar #### **Quarterly Letter** [Dear Shareholders,](https://docsend.com/view/bchv5nipd93697gg) [The Greenwich Ivy Long-Short Fund (the “Fund” or “GIVYX”) was down 2.05% during Q1 2022, net of fees. By comparison, total return for the S&P 500 ETF was negative 4.62% (NYSE: SPY) and total return for the MSCI ACWI ETF was negative 5.67% (NASDAQ: ACWI). Also worth noting that during the worst point of Q1, the Fund was down only approximately 6% for the year, which was considerably better than the performance of the indices.](https://docsend.com/view/bchv5nipd93697gg) [It is useful to disaggregate the performance of the Fund by month…](https://docsend.com/view/bchv5nipd93697gg) ## **Media Mentions** [![Bloomberg](https://greenwichivy.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Bloomberg.jpg?width=120&height=63&name=Bloomberg.jpg "Bloomberg")](https://docsend.com/view/2if24xukdp3r7mqp) ## **Selected Works by the CIO** [![Germany Unconstrained](https://greenwichivy.com/hubfs/Germany%20Unconstrained.png "Germany Unconstrained")](https://greenwichivy.com/hubfs/Works%20by%20CIO/Germany%20Unconstrained%20-%20Chetan%20Jindal.pdf?hsLang=en) [![India Unconstrained](https://greenwichivy.com/hubfs/India%20Unconstrained.png "India Unconstrained")](https://greenwichivy.com/hubfs/Works%20by%20CIO/India%20Unconstrained%20-%20Chetan%20Jindal.pdf?hsLang=en) ##### DISCLAIMERS Materials presented on this site contain the opinions of Greenwich Ivy Capital LLC (“Greenwich Ivy”) as of the dates specified and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Such opinions are subject to change without notice. Said materials contain forward-looking statements using terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “attempt”, “target”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “intend”, “seek”, “believe”, or other variations of these terms. These statements constitute projections or estimates based on assumptions that may not occur, while other conditions not considered may occur instead. Actual events or actual performance may differ materially from those contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Greenwich Ivy assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained in these materials. Certain information was obtained from sources that Greenwich Ivy believes to be reliable; however, Greenwich Ivy does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third-party. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Greenwich Ivy Capital LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser founded in 2018 (FINRA CRD: 300199, SEC: 801-114699). More information about Greenwich Ivy, including links to its Form ADV, can be found at https://greenwichivy.com/ ##### "Greenwich Ivy ™" is a registered trademark of Greenwich Ivy Capital LLC ##### Copyright © 2022 Greenwich Ivy Capital LLC