Investment Insights from Greenwich Ivy Capital
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes
13 Jul 2023
The Anatomy of a Manic-Depressive Market
The equity market is not always reflective of underlying company and economic fundamentals; in fact one might argue that the market is often detached from the fundamentals. We find that the market is currently at such a juncture, where economic reality is not accurately reflected in equity prices.
Furthermore, the market is currently both euphoric and despondent, all at the same time. In other words, sections of the market are pricing in a utopian scenario of blue-sky growth, whereas other parts of the market are pricing in a contractionary economic scenario.
Markets go from one extreme in sentiment to the other all the time; euphoria is followed by despondency which is followed by euphoria. But seldom does it occur that the market is so internally bifurcated at any given time. This is the situation with the equity market today.
In the note below, we delve into which parts of the market are euphoric (or at least quasi-euphoric) and which are despondent (or at least quasi-despondent). We then ask whether this bifurcation is an anomaly, which could potentially lead to opportunities for harvesting alpha.
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes
12 Mar 2023
Developments at Silicon Valley Bank
We wanted to spend a few minutes writing about what is going on at Silicon Valley Bank. We then extrapolate the implications of this for the US banking sector and the equity markets overall.
Finally, we examine how to invest in an environment of elevated risk, while attempting to reduce volatility and capture upside returns.
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes
27 Sep 2022
The Perfect Time for Long-Short Equity:
Threading the Equity Market Needle
(A) equity-like returns that are even now superior to the returns that can be expected from fixed income instruments, and
(B) downside mitigation in a world where bonds have not been defensive, and where both equity and bond prices could experience further significant declines.
Finally, we note that not all long-short equity funds are created equal. We believe that investors should seek funds that are fundamental, in that they examine the fundamentals of individual companies and sectors, and opportunistic, in that they can rapidly respond to changing market conditions...
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes
28 Aug 2022
Powell and Putin
Post Jay Powell's statement at Jackson Hole on Friday (08.26.2022), we wanted to share our thoughts on what we see in the investment landscape today.
After the market's blood-red reaction to Powell's speech on Friday, the bulls are visibly rattled. At Greenwich Ivy Capital ("Greenwich Ivy"), we believe that the market's reaction was very much appropriate, that Powell's words were deliberately chosen to achieve the effect that they did, and that the downward move in equity prices was in fact overdue.
We believe that the S&P 500, and the global equity markets more broadly, have to get past the twin specters of Powell and Putin, before equity prices can see a sustainable rally...
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes
24 May 2022
Where does the Equity Market Go from Here?
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes
06 Apr 2022
What Happens When the Fed Starts to Tighten?
We wanted to share our thoughts on recent developments regarding Fed tightening. What does it mean when the U.S. Federal Reserve System (the “Fed”) begins to tighten? And what implications does this have for the economy and for the equity markets?
It is strange to think that a certain quasi-governmental organization comprised of bureaucrats and economists, sitting in their ivory tower, can so firmly control the trajectory of the U.S. economy and securities markets. As Americans, we are taught to think that we live in a capitalist utopia of free markets, where the unfettered exchange of goods and services occurs based on market-clearing prices determined by the fundamental intersection of supply and demand. Alas, that is not the case…
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes
06 Mar 2022
Thoughts on Ukraine
We wanted to share our thoughts on recent equity market developments, specifically pertaining to events in Ukraine and the market’s reaction to them.
The above is an image of the Berlin Wall right before its fall, circa 1989. Standing atop the wall with open arms, jubilant, victorious, are residents of West Germany. Standing on the ground are soldiers of East Germany, with arms crossed in trepidation about what is to occur next. We must remember that the Berlin Wall was built by East Germany, to keep the East Germans in. It was not built by West Germany, to keep the East Germans out. We will come back to this point in a moment.
Europe finds itself at a similar juncture today. Russia is invading Ukraine, with the goal of setting up a puppet Ukrainian government beholden to the Kremlin and operating under a Communist regime…
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Greenwich Ivy Long-Short Fund
2022 Q1 Jan-Mar
Quarterly Letter
Dear Shareholders,
The Greenwich Ivy Long-Short Fund (the “Fund” or “GIVYX”) was down 2.05% during Q1 2022, net of fees. By comparison, total return for the S&P 500 ETF was negative 4.62% (NYSE: SPY) and total return for the MSCI ACWI ETF was negative 5.67% (NASDAQ: ACWI). Also worth noting that during the worst point of Q1, the Fund was down only approximately 6% for the year, which was considerably better than the performance of the indices.
It is useful to disaggregate the performance of the Fund by month…
Media Mentions
Selected Works by the CIO
